The topic of bookmakers and how they set their odds has been up for debate among punters for so long. “Is it one person in charge?”, “Does it come from Vegas, the capital city of gambling?”, “Do the sportsbooks randomly pick a number?”. All these and many more have been asked over and over with no concrete resolution.
Therefore, it behooves us to give you a look into gambling platforms offering NFL point spread lines and how these lines are set. We also look into some other common questions that you may ask yourselves. So if you wish to find out more, recline in your seats and read up.
Who Dictates NFL Lines?
To this question of who exactly sets the lines for point spreads, totals, and other betting options, there is no direct answer. And even those who are deemed professional punters, despite their experience, also have very little knowledge as to the origin of NFL odds.
The answer to who dictates NFL lines is not a one-person kind of answer but multiple persons. Usually, the first lines are set by a professional group of oddsmakers who come together to decide on an opening number. These odds are the numbers punters now see when they place wagers.
In this decision making, they consider several factors before creating an opening line. Creating these numbers usually involves careful analysis using formulas, statistical algorithms, and simulations in conjunction with personal observations. Thus, after all has been considered, these odds are made by humans and not computers.
When Do NFL Odds Get Released?
The earliest time NFL bookmakers release odds is usually the beginning of the week, as early as Sunday evening. That’s when they drop the odds and numbers for the following week’s games.
But even then, you may still find some games without set lines. This often happens when the NFL teams or their next opponents are involved in another game during the week.
Why Bet Lines Change
Immediately after an oddsmaker posts the opening line, the action of bettors in placing wagers is what then moves the line. And the line will continue going in one direction or the other for the rest of that week. In essence, bet line changes are more of a reaction to the betting action of punters.
On the other hand, however, bet lines can change for other reasons besides betting action. If there is an unexpected weather change or change in the lineup, the odds may move. Health concerns are another reason why there may be a line change.
Is It Advisable To Jump On A Line Move?
Depending on several criteria, it may or may not be smart to place a wager when a line moves. And here is why and the different scenarios.
If the odds move in a direction that favors you, it may be the right time to place your wager. But if you feel it will keep on moving in your favored direction, you may want to wait a little more before staking. On the other hand, if the line moves once in the direction that disfavors you, you should jump in before it moves again.
Jumping on a line move is a tricky situation because it’s easy to lose yourself in it. Often, punters get carried monitoring if a line will move or has moved, and they end up forfeiting the bet altogether.
Also, if a bet moves in a direction contrary to your plan, it doesn’t mean you should switch your wagering choice – maintain your initial plan. Changing odds doesn’t necessarily mean the outcome will be in the direction the lines change.
Why Different Bookies Have Varying Odds
In some cases, certain sportsbooks may present odds that differ from other bookies. When this happens, it usually is because these sites have some type of insider info that others are not aware of. It could be related to a player’s injury, lineup adjustments, or a switch in match officials.
Whatever the reason, they alter the odds to reflect these changes/info.
Usually, they do this so they can hedge their own outstanding risks. So before punters can take action on the information, the bookie has moved the odds in their favor.
Are NFL Lines Set In The Same Way As Other Sports?
Sports games are not the same – in the same vein, their lines cannot also be the same. Thus, the odds for each event vary from sport to sport.
One major reason for this is seen when you look at each game’s overall structure and how they differ from one to another. For instance, a football game is played in four quarters, soccer in two halves, hockey in three periods, baseball in nine innings, and on and on.
Another reason is the difference in how points are scored in each event and how the values add up. Baseball teams score at a rate of 1 per play, while in football, there are 3-point and 6-point plays. This thus accounts for the difference in the set lines.
Beating bookies at their own game is kinda tricky. You must arm yourself with sufficient knowledge of how NFL lines are set. This way, you can understand how to improve your chances of winning.